Showing posts with label Dead Cat Bounce. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Dead Cat Bounce. Show all posts

Thursday, March 15, 2007

Wheeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee!!!

Are we having fun yet?

The Market has been a rollercoaster rids as of late, epitomized by yesterdays HUGE swing. For those of you who missed it, the Dow was down about $135 points yesterday in the morning, and even fell below the psychological $12,000 level for some brief moments.

Then it looked like a scene from Pamplona, Spain as the Bulls came charging back.

The Market then staged a HUGE rally to end UP over $57 points.

What to do, what to do? Honestly, the big drop on Tuesday took out about half my Stop-Loss levels (which I move on a daily basis depending on price movement up - never down), so some of my stocks taken out were for gains, albeit smaller ones. Some of the stocks were taken out for losses (smaller ones), and the other positions I closed out myself waiting to see what happens. Basically, I am in all cash right now. Yesterday may have been a "Dead Cat Bounce" from Tuesday's $240 point slide. I am not convinced the "correction" is over just yet.

I'll try to have some trading ideas over the weekend, which will be very busy for me since it is my wife's Baby Shower.

Happy Trading!

Wednesday, March 7, 2007

The End of the Fall?

Hey y'all:

A quick post for this morning on something I noticed yesterday. I looked at the "Big Picture" on the Dow yesterday and discovered something VERY interesting. Take a look:

This is a part of the 5 Year chart. You'll notice that the index was traveling beautifully inside an Ascending Channel until about October of '05, at which point it broke above the channel. I then have two "minor" Channels above the "major" with the most recent one being somewhat tepid, or less steep. This indicated that the trend was losing steam. Of course we all know the WALLOP the market gave most of us last week. The question on ALL of our minds was, "when will this end?"

It may have ended now.

See the way the index "bounced" of the top of the "major" channel? Pretty amazing huh? Remember gang, previous resistance becomes new support when resistance is broken. That is exactly what happened here.

What does it all mean?

Well, it may mean that the "correction" has ceased, but I can't be certain. If we see a greater move up from here we need to be careful. In order to continue the Bullish trend we need a Higher High. I am not sure we will get it here as the market may sideways trend here for a bit before deciding what it want to do. Yesterday may also have been a "Dead Cat Bounce" (I didn't make the term up for all you cat-lovers), which is a "short term spike after a tremendous downfall." Basically a DCB is a Band-Aid on a major wound giving temporary relief to the Bulls. The fall may not be over yet, be careful!

Some ideas. I "dipped my toe in" to test the market by opening small positions in the following (not a recommenbdation to buy):

BHP
CLF
GRMN
PCL
PICO
SWK

Happy Trading!