Saturday, April 7, 2007

"The Trend is Your Friend...

...Until it ENDS!"

Hey Gang:

As you will note by my last post, I had been somewhat bearish on the market. The trend signals were also pointing bearish, and the economic indicators were also bearish. With that in mind, and my QID and DOG charts seemingly bouncing I got in two trades. On Wednesday, I got out.

One of my trading rules is to exit any trade that falls below, and stays below support for two (2) consecutive days. That happened on Wednesday. Here are the charts:

DOG

QID
For me, it is okay to be wrong, but never okay to second guess if the market will do what you expected it to. In this case, I expected the market to go down (and UP on my Bearish ETF's), it did not, so I abandoned the positions for small losses and have moved on.

So now what? Well, we are coming into Earnings Season, always a tricky time to play stocks especially over Earnings. So if I can get into some plays that I see reaching a peak BEFORE earnings, I may play them. I have some of my favorite trades that are still overbought from when I was taken out in March (look at BHP, CLF and DVN...), so i need to be patient for a pullback before I can think about getting in. HUM which was a previous suggestion by a member is doing well. I did get into a small position on GRMN, which I saw as bouncing at the bottom of a very high Ascending Channel which made the reward/risk ratio pretty juicy:

I'll let you know if I have any other trades i am looking at playing when I come across them.

Happy Trading!

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